Are Economic experts really experts?

For the last three months, the market has done pretty well, considering everything that has happened. Recently, data has come out that has been better than expected. Now, I know that is a good thing, but lets face it, we are not getting out of this recession anytime soon. Economists, such as Geithner and the likes, suggest that we will be out of the recession towards the fourth quarter of 2009. All I can do is laugh at that. Unemployment is still rising, just not as fast as it did. Banks are still failing, just not the large institutions. People still aren't spending money, yet confidence is going up. I am skeptical about believing these statistics and the "better than expected data" because of the last piece I wrote, government manipulation of the Stock Market, but I will be less skeptical just for a second. Say that better than expected data is coming out, it will still take years for this economy to come back. Let us take a look at some history, It took years to get over the recession in the 70's and 80's. It took years to get out of the 30's. What makes this time any different?

Economists understand the viscous cycle of people losing jobs and not spending. I believe that most of them also understand how long it takes to recover. What I am wondering is why there are so many economists that believe we will recover or even begin to recover in the next eight months?